No other grocer has such a commanding grip over one state as Publix does over Florida. The company, which is based in the city of Lakeland, has over the decades amassed more than 800 locations in the Sunshine State.

This hasn’t kept other grocers from trying to elbow their way in, eager to capitalize on Florida’s fast-growing population and attractive mix of young and old consumers. Publix, however, has done a very good job of pushing these challengers to the margins. It has chased out most conventional grocery chains over the years, including Sweetbay Supermarkets, Food Lion and Albertsons. 

Now Aldi, which entered Florida in 2008, has risen up to challenge Publix by acquiring Winn-Dixie, Publix’s last major conventional grocery rival standing in the state, along with Harveys Supermarket. Far from being a pushover, Aldi promises to give Publix a real battle and could actually gain the upper hand in many markets.

Aldi has made considerable progress in Florida over the past 15 years or so. It’s currently the fourth most popular grocery store in the states by visits, with 43 million last year, according to research by commercial real estate group JLL reported by the Tampa Bay Times. Winn-Dixie stores, meanwhile, saw nearly 114 million visits last year, making it the state’s second most popular grocer. It’s not clear exactly how many Florida Winn-Dixie stores Aldi gains with this deal — the announcement noted approximately 400 Winn-Dixie and Harveys stores across Florida and four other states — but it’s safe to say the additions will make Aldi a significant competitor to Publix, which saw more than 600 million visits last year, according to JLL’s research.

In addition to its experience operating in the state, Aldi has the resources to compete and a low-price model that has been resonating with shoppers. The discounter has put a lot of work into making shoppers feel like they aren’t trading down for its lower prices, adding hundreds of organic and specialty products alongside its staple items in recent years. That should help keep a lot of shoppers in its stores even as inflation continues to wind down.

And although Winn-Dixie has been a much weaker operator than Publix over the years, its stores have gone through an extensive remodeling and rebranding process recently and are typically situated in prime locations. A lot of those could turn into well-located Aldi stores. And those locations that Aldi decides to keep under the Winn-Dixie name won't require steep remodeling investments, allowing Aldi to focus instead on lowering prices and making other operational improvements.

Publix is a strong, beloved grocery chain, but it doesn’t have a strong price image among consumers. Aldi, on the other hand, is the nation’s top grocer for price perception, according to Dunnhumby’s Retailer Preference Index. Erich Kahner, director of competitive strategy and insights, North America for Dunnhumby said in an email that Aldi “is a destination for produce and dairy, two departments Publix prioritizes,” and noted that its quality perception is just slightly behind the overall grocery market.

“Publix was already at a disadvantage to Aldi and Winn-Dixie in price perception, and this move will make it easier for Publix shoppers to cross over and save money at either Aldi or Winn-Dixie,” Kahner wrote.

Publix, of course, will fight hard to keep its shoppers as it continues to expand in Florida. Look for the battle for the state’s grocery dollars to continue heating up in the years to come.

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Number of the week: 24%

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BJ’s publishes earnings

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Impulse find

Will the Winn Win Twinns be forced into early retirement? 

An iconic duo, the Winn Win Twinns consider Winn-Dixie to be “their kingdom, their arena … [and] hallowed ground,” according to the grocer’s website. 

The “identical” Winn Win Twinns have been the stars of numerous Winn-Dixie commercials proudly promoting the Florida grocer’s quality goods (as the Twinns are “quality aficionados”) and showing shoppers how to save and earn points towards free groceries. 

But what’s in store for them now that Aldi has agreed to acquire the chain from Southeastern Grocers? 

So far, the Twinns have not disclosed what their next steps are, but we can only assume they’ll learn to love Aldi like they have Winn-Dixie.